← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Dickinson, Scotland
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 88% | 91% | 1.08 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 7% | 12.53 | fair |
| Dundee United win | 3% | 3% | 34.39 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Celtic −2.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Dundee United −2.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 76% | 69% | 1.27 | fair |
| Under | 24% | 31% | 4.00 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Sead Hakšabanović · Celtic |
| 11' | 🟨 | Alexandro Bernabei · Celtic |
| 12' | ⚽ (pen) | Steven Fletcher · Dundee United |
| 34' | ⚽ | Sead Hakšabanović · Celtic |
| 87' | ⚽ | Dylan Levitt · Dundee United |
| 88' | 🟨 | Kieran Freeman · Dundee United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Liel Abada · Celtic |
| 90' | 🟨 | Moritz Jenz · Celtic |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dylan Levitt · Dundee United |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kyogo Furuhashi · Celtic |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 6 |
| 12 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Celtic | Dundee United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Celtic Park |
| ⚽ |
| Liel Abada · Celtic |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 522.00 | 96.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1827.83 | 1438.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.04 | 10.79 |
| eye test v1 | 1.11 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.75 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 33.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 6.13 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.75 | 0.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.91 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.95 | — |
| state index | 1.64 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.42 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |