← Scottish Premiership 2022-23 · Sun, Aug 28, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: Steven McLean, Scotland
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Celtic win | 86% | 82% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 11% | 10.78 | value: +19% |
| Dundee United win | 4% | 7% | 28.74 | value: +110% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Celtic +2.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Dundee United +2.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 72% | 59% | 1.34 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 41% | 3.40 | value: +39% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 6 | Shots | 30 |
| 2 | On target | 13 |
| 2 | Corners | 11 |
| 6 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand