← Scottish Premiership 2009-10 · Wed, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C Richmond
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Motherwell win | 38% | 23% | 2.50 | fair |
| Falkirk win | 35% | 27% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 49% | 3.30 | value: +62% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.