← Scottish Premiership 2006-07 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J Underhill
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Celtic win | 70% | 72% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 13% | 4.80 | fair |
| Falkirk win | 11% | 15% | 8.50 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.