← Scottish Premiership 2005-06 · Mon, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S Dougal
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Hearts win | 66% | 89% | 1.44 | value: +28% ⚠ |
| Draw | 23% | 11% | 4.50 | fair |
| Falkirk win | 11% | 0% | 9.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 12 | On target | 5 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.