← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Yates
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet win | 68% | 65% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 21% | 5.25 | value: +9% |
| Gillingham win | 15% | 14% | 6.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnet −1.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Gillingham −1.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 54% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 46% | 2.25 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Callum Stead · Barnet |
| 13' | ⚽ | Sullivan Booth · Gillingham |
| 15' | ⚽ | Callum Stead · Barnet |
| 16' | ⚽ | Callum Stead · Barnet |
| 30' | ⚽ | Callum Stead · Barnet |
| 37' | 🟨 | Conor Masterson · Gillingham |
| 43' | 🟨 | Kabongo Tshimanga · Barnet |
| 45' | ⚽ | Romoney Crichlow · Barnet |
| 70' | ⚽ | Callum Stead · Barnet |
| 74' | 🟨 | Mark Shelton · Barnet |
| 83' | 🟨 |
| 5 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 4 |
| 12 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barnet | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Hive Stadium |
| Josh Andrews · Gillingham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Josh Andrews · Gillingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 267.00 | 267.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1365.19 | 1218.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.36 | 1.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.57 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.90 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.55 |
| league points | 70.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 62.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | -1.33 |
| solidity v1 | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.33 | 28.52 |
| state index | 0.32 | -1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 1.02 |