← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Mon, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bourne
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet win | 38% | 40% | 2.45 | fair |
| Fleetwood Town win | 34% | 32% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnet +0 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Fleetwood Town +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 55% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 45% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Mark Shelton · Barnet |
| 21' | 🟨 | Romoney Crichlow · Barnet |
| 45' | 🟥 | Shaun Rooney · Fleetwood Town |
| 45' | ⚽ | Callum Stead · Barnet |
| 47' | ⚽ | Anthony Hartigan · Barnet |
| 51' | ⚽ | Harrison Neal · Fleetwood Town |
| 65' | 🟨 | Finley Potter · Fleetwood Town |
| 65' | 🟨 | Ryan Glover · Barnet |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Mark Helm · Fleetwood Town |
| 76' | 🟨 | Josh Powell · Fleetwood Town |
| 77' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 9 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fleetwood Town | Barnet |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Highbury Stadium |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Kabongo Tshimanga · Barnet |
| 79' | ⚽ | Kabongo Tshimanga · Barnet |
| 90' | ⚽ | Diallang Jaiyesimi · Barnet |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 248.00 | 248.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1299.44 | 1329.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.36 | 21.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 68.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.64 |
| league points | 55.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 55.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.49 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.67 | -1.36 |
| solidity v1 | 0.81 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.38 | 26.10 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.12 |