← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Chilowicz
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet win | 37% | 34% | 2.50 | fair |
| Colchester win | 34% | 35% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnet +0 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Colchester +0 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 50% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 50% | 2.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Samson Tovide · Colchester |
| 31' | 🟨 | Joe Kizzi · Barnet |
| 39' | ⚽ | Arthur Read · Colchester |
| 45' | ⚽ | Nnamdi Ofoborh · Barnet |
| 64' | 🟨 | Will Goodwin · Colchester |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Jack Payne · Colchester |
| 77' | ⚽ | Jack Payne · Colchester |
| 78' | 🟨 | Oliver Hawkins · Barnet |
| 90' | 🟨 | Phillip Chinedu · Barnet |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jack Payne · Colchester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Colchester | Barnet |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Colchester Community Stadium |
| coach days | 204.00 | 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 3.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1352.50 | 1311.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.54 | 1.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| league points | 46.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 67.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | 1.25 |
| solidity v1 | 1.26 | 0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.96 | 26.90 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | 1.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.78 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.76 |