← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Byrne
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salford win | 54% | 50% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
| Cheltenham win | 22% | 25% | 4.10 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salford +0.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Cheltenham +0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 58% | 1.90 | value: +11% |
| Under | 49% | 42% | 1.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Ben Woodburn · Salford |
| 6' | ⚽ | Jorge Grant · Salford |
| 14' | 🟨 | Kadeem Harris · Salford |
| 48' | 🟥 | Luke Garbutt · Salford |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Isaac Hutchinson · Cheltenham |
| 71' | 🟨 | Matthew Young · Salford |
| 73' | 🟨 | Isaac Hutchinson · Cheltenham |
| 73' | 🟨 | Ossama Ashley · Salford |
| 73' | 🟨 | Ryan Graydon · Salford |
| 76' | ⚽ | Zach Awe · Salford |
| 84' | ⚽ | Harry Ashfield · |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cheltenham | Salford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Whaddon Road |
| 90' | ⚽ | George Miller · Cheltenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 204.00 |
| 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1397.38 | 1509.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.63 | -32.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.79 |
| league points | 32.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | -0.50 |
| solidity v1 | -0.44 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.96 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.67 |