← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Tue, Feb 17, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Rock
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salford win | 71% | 71% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 19% | 5.00 | fair |
| Newport County win | 10% | 10% | 9.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newport County −1.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Salford −1.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 58% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 42% | 2.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Ryan Delaney · Newport County |
| 29' | 🟨 | Cameron Evans · Newport County |
| 52' | 🟨 | Courtney Baker-Richardson · Newport County |
| 56' | ⚽ | Ben Lloyd · Newport County |
| 59' | ⚽ | Nathaniel Opoku · Newport County |
| 62' | 🟨 | Harrison Biggins · Newport County |
| 69' | 🟨 | Sven Sprangler · Newport County |
| 71' | 🟨 | Kelly N'Mai · Salford |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jorge Grant · Salford |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ryan Graydon · Salford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ben Woodburn |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salford | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Peninsula Stadium |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Opoku · Newport County |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ben Woodburn · Salford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 200.00 |
| 200.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1534.81 | 1302.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.40 | -32.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 52.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.00 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 11.99 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 0.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.26 | -1.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.83 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |