← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 14, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Mulhall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet win | 69% | 67% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 4.75 | fair |
| Cheltenham win | 12% | 13% | 7.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnet −1.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Cheltenham −1.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 54% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 46% | 2.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Isaac Hutchinson · Cheltenham |
| 48' | 🟨 | Joe Kizzi · Barnet |
| 52' | 🟨 | Ryan Glover · Barnet |
| 82' | 🟨 | Nnamdi Ofoborh · Barnet |
| 84' | 🟨 | Arkell Jude-Boyd · Cheltenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nikola Tavares · Barnet |
| 90' | 🟨 | Arkell Jude-Boyd · Cheltenham |
| 90' | 🟥 | Arkell Jude-Boyd · Cheltenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 5 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barnet | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | The Hive Stadium |
| coach days |
| 197.00 |
| 197.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.45 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1477.15 | 1386.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.24 | -27.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.72 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 67.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 46.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.84 | -0.49 |
| solidity v1 | 0.51 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.00 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 1.08 |