← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 7, 03:01 PM UTC · ref: P. Marsden
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet win | 38% | 41% | 2.40 | fair |
| Walsall win | 33% | 31% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnet +0 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Walsall +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 57% | 1.70 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 43% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Aaron Pressley · Walsall |
| 41' | ⚽ | Adam Senior · Barnet |
| 54' | ⚽ | Idris Kanu · Barnet |
| 62' | 🟨 | Mason Hancock · Walsall |
| 62' | 🟨 | Kane Smith · Barnet |
| 64' | ⚽ | Daniel Kanu · Walsall |
| 68' | ⚽ | Kabongo Tshimanga · Barnet |
| 71' | 🟨 | Brandon Comley · Walsall |
| 71' | 🟨 | Courtney Clarke · Walsall |
| 87' | 🟨 | Priestley Farquharson · Walsall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Walsall | Barnet |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Bescot Stadium |
| coach days |
| 129.00 |
| 190.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1511.15 | 1457.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.30 | 4.44 |
| eye test v1 | -1.14 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| league points | 49.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.11 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.06 | 0.14 |
| solidity v1 | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.38 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.54 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.81 |