← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 24, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Drysdale
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet win | 49% | 50% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
| Oldham win | 24% | 21% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oldham −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Barnet −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 57% | 1.90 | value: +8% |
| Under | 49% | 43% | 1.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Daniele Collinge · Barnet |
| 11' | ⚽ | Tom Pett · Oldham |
| 36' | ⚽ | Ryan Glover · Barnet |
| 42' | 🟨 | Donervon Daniels · Oldham |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Kabongo Tshimanga · Barnet |
| 64' | 🟥 | Nikola Tavares · Barnet |
| 69' | ⚽ | — · Oldham |
| 71' | 🟨 | Cieran Slicker · Barnet |
| 87' | ⚽ | Kabongo Tshimanga · Barnet |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kane Smith · Barnet |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barnet | Oldham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | The Hive Stadium |
| coach days | 176.00 | 176.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1295.14 | 1286.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.00 | 40.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 44.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.81 |
| league points | 35.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 57.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | -1.36 |
| solidity v1 | -0.62 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.30 | 30.31 |
| state index | -0.36 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | -1.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.92 | 1.63 |