← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Charles Breakspear, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon win | 37% | 39% | 2.50 | fair |
| Salford win | 36% | 32% | 2.57 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swindon +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Salford +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 52% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 48% | 1.98 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Oliver Turton · Salford |
| 31' | ⚽ | Kelly N'Mai · Salford |
| 35' | ⚽ | Joel McGregor · Swindon |
| 39' | 🟨 | Josh Austerfield · Salford |
| 56' | 🟨 | Joe Snowdon · Swindon |
| 65' | 🟨 | Brandon Cooper · Salford |
| 67' | 🟨 | Luke Garbutt · Salford |
| 72' | ⚽ | Kallum Cesay · Salford |
| 73' | 🟨 | Ben Woodburn · Salford |
| 77' | ⚽ | Aaron Drinan · Swindon |
| 87' | 🟨 | Will Wright · Swindon |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swindon | Salford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | County Ground |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 169.00 |
| 169.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1559.53 | 1529.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.65 | 34.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | 0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 46.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 61.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | -0.40 |
| solidity v1 | 0.34 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| state index | 0.67 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -1.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 2.44 |