← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Peter Wright, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury win | 51% | 54% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.70 | fair |
| Harrogate win | 24% | 19% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Harrogate −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 55% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 45% | 2.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Jack Evans · Harrogate |
| 23' | 🟨 | Chanse Headman · Harrogate |
| 51' | 🟨 | Jack Evans · Harrogate |
| 51' | 🟥 | Jack Evans · Harrogate |
| 62' | ⚽ | Taylor Perry · Shrewsbury |
| 70' | 🟨 | Reece Smith · Harrogate |
| 89' | 🟨 | Anthony O'Connor · Harrogate |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tommy McDermott · Shrewsbury |
| 90' | 🟨 | John Marquis · Shrewsbury |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sam Clucas · Shrewsbury |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Shrewsbury | Harrogate |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | The Croud Meadow |
| 🟨 |
| Lewis Cass · Harrogate |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Thomson · Harrogate |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 169.00 | 169.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1341.90 | 1329.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.19 | -33.35 |
| eye test v1 | -1.38 | -1.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.70 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| league points | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 58.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 0.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -11.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.69 | -1.90 |
| solidity v1 | -0.07 | -2.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| state index | -1.32 | -1.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 2.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.73 |