← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Thu, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sebastian Stockbridge, England
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Tranmere win | 47% | 45% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
| Harrogate win | 26% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Harrogate +0.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Tranmere +0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 51% | 48% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 52% | 1.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand