← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Scott Oldham, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salford win | 44% | 46% | 2.10 | fair |
| Colchester win | 30% | 28% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Colchester −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Salford −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 56% | 1.90 | value: +6% |
| Under | 49% | 44% | 1.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Harry Anderson · Colchester |
| 9' | 🟨 | Haji Mnoga · Salford |
| 11' | ⚽ | Kadeem Harris · Salford |
| 51' | ⚽ | Ellis Iandolo · Colchester |
| 55' | ⚽ | Arthur Read · Colchester |
| 59' | ⚽ | Adebola Oluwo · Salford |
| 75' | ⚽ (pen) | Fabio Borini · Salford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kallum Cesay · Salford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luke Garbutt · Salford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luke Garbutt · Salford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 10 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salford | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Peninsula Stadium |
| coach days | 134.00 | 134.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.25 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1494.80 | 1523.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.49 | 28.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| league points | 30.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 3.70 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | -0.78 |
| solidity v1 | 0.48 | 0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.41 |