← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Coy, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salford win | 53% | 53% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 30% | 3.75 | value: +14% |
| Crawley Town win | 22% | 16% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town −0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Salford −0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 64% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 36% | 2.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Louie Watson · Crawley Town |
| 33' | ⚽ (og) | Adebola Oluwo · Crawley Town |
| 45' | ⚽ | Adebola Oluwo · Salford |
| 53' | 🟨 | Kabongo Tshimanga · Crawley Town |
| 53' | ⚽ | Matt Butcher · Salford |
| 55' | 🟨 | Adebola Oluwo · Salford |
| 57' | ⚽ | Harry Forster · Crawley Town |
| 72' | ⚽ | Jay Williams · Crawley Town |
| 85' | ⚽ | Josh Austerfield · Salford |
| 86' | ⚽ | Kallum Cesay · Salford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 12 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salford | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Peninsula Stadium |
| coach days | 120.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1486.72 | 1436.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.39 | 17.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 45.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.60 |
| league points | 26.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 68.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | 1.18 |
| solidity v1 | 0.09 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | 1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.79 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.43 |