← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: James Durkin, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet win | 46% | 46% | 2.01 | fair |
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 29% | 24% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 31% | 3.60 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnet −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Milton Keynes Dons −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 53% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 47% | 1.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Adam Senior · Barnet |
| 28' | ⚽ (pen) | Mark Shelton · Barnet |
| 39' | ⚽ | Jack Sanders · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 50' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Mendez-Laing · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 65' | ⚽ | Nathaniel Mendez-Laing · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jack Sanders · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 71' | 🟨 | Idris Kanu · Barnet |
| 71' | 🟨 | Callum Paterson · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nathan Thompson · Milton Keynes Dons |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Barnet | Milton Keynes Dons |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | The Hive Stadium |
| coach days |
| 99.00 |
| 99.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.25 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1447.73 | 1481.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.31 | 46.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| league points | 21.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 62.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 14.04 | 14.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | -1.07 |
| solidity v1 | 0.80 | 1.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 0.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.15 |