← EFL League Two 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Bancroft
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby win | 44% | 40% | 2.21 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
| Harrogate win | 28% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Grimsby +0.25 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Harrogate +0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 51% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 49% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Tom Bradbury · Harrogate |
| 11' | 🟨 | Stephen Duke-McKenna · Harrogate |
| 15' | 🟨 | Warren Burrell · Harrogate |
| 38' | 🟨 | Harvey Rodgers · Grimsby |
| 51' | 🟨 | Darragh Burns · Grimsby |
| 58' | ⚽ | Reece Smith · Harrogate |
| 68' | ⚽ | Charles Vernam · Grimsby |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Ellis Taylor · Harrogate |
| 76' | ⚽ | Conor McAleny · Harrogate |
| 84' | ⚽ | Harvey Rodgers · Grimsby |
| 88' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Harrogate | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Exercise Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Conor McAleny · Harrogate |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anthony O'Connor · Harrogate |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cameron Gardner · Grimsby |
| 90' | ⚽ | — · Grimsby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 3.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1444.88 | 1473.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.43 | -9.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | — |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 65.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.20 | -1.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.18 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.91 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |