← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salford win | 44% | 44% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| Colchester win | 28% | 27% | 3.55 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salford −0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Colchester −0.25 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 59% | 1.69 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 41% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Fiacre Kelleher · Colchester |
| 2' | ⚽ (pen) | Hakeeb Adelakun · Salford |
| 21' | ⚽ | Liam Shephard · Salford |
| 24' | ⚽ | Cole Stockton · Salford |
| 46' | 🟨 | Ben Woodburn · Salford |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Hakeeb Adelakun · Salford |
| 66' | ⚽ | Ellis Iandolo · Colchester |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ossama Ashley · Salford |
| 75' | 🟨 | Luke Garbutt · Salford |
| 89' | 🟨 | Kelly N'Mai · Salford |
| 90' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salford | Colchester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | The Peninsula Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Arthur Read · Colchester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 481.00 | 481.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1332.15 | 1346.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.38 | 6.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | -0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 48.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.78 |
| league points | 65.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.41 | 26.76 |
| state index | -0.35 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |