← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Baines
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Salford win | 57% | 59% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.86 | fair |
| Morecambe win | 19% | 20% | 5.23 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Salford −0.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Morecambe −0.75 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 51% | 47% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 53% | 1.98 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 21 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | The Peninsula Stadium |