← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Thu, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salford win | 45% | 48% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.18 | fair |
| Barrow win | 25% | 25% | 3.81 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barrow −0.5 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Salford −0.5 | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 59% | 1.48 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 41% | 2.71 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Cole Stockton · Salford |
| 21' | ⚽ | Luke Garbutt · Salford |
| 33' | ⚽ | Tyrese Fornah · Salford |
| 37' | 🟨 | Tyrese Fornah · Salford |
| 37' | 🟨 | Matthew Lund · Salford |
| 37' | 🟨 | Rory Feely · Barrow |
| 73' | 🟨 | Ossama Ashley · Salford |
| 73' | 🟨 | Chris Popov · Barrow |
| 80' | ⚽ | Kylian Kouassi · Salford |
| 84' | 🟨 | Tyrese Fornah · Salford |
| 84' | 🟥 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salford | Barrow |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | The Peninsula Stadium |
| Tyrese Fornah · Salford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 360.00 | 239.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1487.53 | 1465.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.84 | -12.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 70.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.74 |
| league points | 30.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.52 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |