← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Mulligan
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield win | 58% | 55% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.11 | fair |
| Harrogate win | 19% | 22% | 5.09 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield +0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Harrogate +0.75 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 56% | 1.74 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 44% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Jasper Moon · Harrogate |
| 28' | 🟨 | Ollie Banks · Chesterfield |
| 45' | 🟨 | Devan Tanton · Chesterfield |
| 57' | 🟨 | Will Grigg · Chesterfield |
| 57' | ⚽ | Toby Sims · Harrogate |
| 67' | 🟨 | Zico Asare · Harrogate |
| 73' | 🟨 | Josh Falkingham · Harrogate |
| 77' | ⚽ | James Berry · Chesterfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Armando Dobra · Chesterfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Naylor · Chesterfield |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Harrogate | Chesterfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Exercise Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Dean Cornelius · Harrogate |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 5678.00 | 1019.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 4.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1424.33 | 1447.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.91 | 12.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| league points | 15.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | 0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.61 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.88 | 0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |