← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Tue, Oct 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town win | 44% | 46% | 2.20 | fair |
| Salford win | 29% | 30% | 3.32 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Salford −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 54% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 46% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Stephan Negru · Salford |
| 18' | ⚽ | Ben Woodburn · Salford |
| 26' | 🟨 | Kylian Kouassi · Salford |
| 28' | 🟨 | Jon Taylor · Salford |
| 30' | 🟨 | Finley Potter · Fleetwood Town |
| 33' | ⚽ | Ronan Coughlan · Fleetwood Town |
| 55' | 🟨 | Kelly N'Mai · Salford |
| 59' | 🟨 | Elliot Bonds · Fleetwood Town |
| 61' | ⚽ | Mark Helm · Fleetwood Town |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ben Woodburn · Salford |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fleetwood Town | Salford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Highbury Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Matthew Virtue-Thick · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Curtis Tilt · Salford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Francis Okoronkwo · Salford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 333.00 | 302.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1535.61 | 1455.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.08 | 20.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | 0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| league points | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 65.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 3.24 | 3.34 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.16 | -1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.16 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |