← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Hicks
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Colchester win | 53% | 57% | 1.83 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.79 | fair |
| Harrogate win | 22% | 23% | 4.60 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Harrogate −0.75 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Colchester −0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 53% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 47% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | JobServe Community Stadium |