← EFL League Two 2024-25 · Sat, Aug 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Watkins
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield win | 61% | 60% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 18% | 4.30 | fair |
| Salford win | 16% | 22% | 6.25 | value: +39% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salford −1 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Chesterfield −1 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 55% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 45% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Ben Woodburn · Salford |
| 56' | 🟨 | Jon Taylor · Salford |
| 62' | 🟨 | Josh Austerfield · Salford |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ollie Banks · Chesterfield |
| 63' | 🟨 | Tyrese Fornah · Salford |
| 67' | 🟨 | Luke Garbutt · Salford |
| 69' | ⚽ | James Berry · Chesterfield |
| 71' | 🟨 | Curtis Tilt · Salford |
| 71' | 🟨 | Curtis Tilt · Salford |
| 71' | 🟥 | Curtis Tilt · Salford |
| 86' | ⚽ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chesterfield | Salford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | SMH Group Stadium |
| Kelly N'Mai · Salford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Naylor · Chesterfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 935.00 | 236.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1405.19 | 1438.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.08 | -8.21 |
| eye test v1 | 1.41 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | — | -0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.50 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.00 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.41 | -0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.50 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.50 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.76 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |