← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Atkinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon win | 47% | 49% | 2.03 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.54 | fair |
| Salford win | 25% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salford −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| AFC Wimbledon −0.5 | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 44% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 56% | 2.05 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Conor McAleny · Salford |
| 24' | 🟨 | Connor McLennan · Salford |
| 32' | 🟨 | Elliot Watt · Salford |
| 33' | 🟨 | Luke Garbutt · Salford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Matthew Lund · Salford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ryan Watson · Salford |
| 65' | 🟨 | Curtis Tilt · Salford |
| 70' | ⚽ | Omar Bugiel · AFC Wimbledon |
| 81' | 🟨 | Ryan Johnson · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lee Brown · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Salford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| Elliot Watt · Salford |
| 90' | 🟥 | Theo Vassell · Salford |
| 90' | 🟥 | Elliot Watt · Salford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 706.00 | 96.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1312.47 | 1286.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.24 | 6.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | 0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.80 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.54 |
| league points | 59.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 64.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.55 | -1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.16 | 29.96 |
| state index | -0.67 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |