← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Mon, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham win | 46% | 38% | 2.11 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.44 | fair |
| Harrogate win | 26% | 32% | 3.65 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gillingham +0.25 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Harrogate +0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 59% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 41% | 2.16 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Stephen Dooley · Harrogate |
| 41' | ⚽ | George Lapslie · Gillingham |
| 55' | 🟨 | Josh March · Harrogate |
| 59' | 🟨 | Remeao Hutton · Gillingham |
| 60' | ⚽ | Anthony O'Connor · Harrogate |
| 68' | ⚽ | Matty Daly · Harrogate |
| 70' | ⚽ | Matty Daly · Harrogate |
| 72' | 🟨 | Levi Sutton · Harrogate |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Andrews · Gillingham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jack Muldoon · Harrogate |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Harrogate | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | EnviroVent Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Abraham Odoh · Harrogate |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 5449.00 | 152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1309.49 | 1305.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.78 | -4.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| league points | 55.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 2.96 | 2.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.40 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 29.06 | 29.24 |
| state index | -0.49 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |