← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Whitestone
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 53% | 56% | 1.81 | fair |
| Salford win | 24% | 22% | 4.08 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salford −0.75 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Milton Keynes Dons −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 55% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 45% | 2.65 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Matt Smith · Salford |
| 20' | 🟨 | Connor McLennan · Salford |
| 27' | ⚽ | Kyran Lofthouse · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 31' | ⚽ | Alex Gilbey · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Matt Smith · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 54' | 🟨 | Matt Smith · Salford |
| 71' | 🟨 | Conor McAleny · Salford |
| 74' | 🟨 | Lewis Bate · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ellis Harrison · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 74' | 🟨 | Theo Vassell · Salford |
| 82' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons | Salford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| venue | Stadium mk |
| 🟨 |
| Matthew Lund · Salford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 160.00 | 68.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1569.53 | 1455.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.04 | -19.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.86 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.60 |
| league points | 61.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 62.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | -1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| state index | 0.53 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.68 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |