← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Hicks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 59% | 58% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.33 | fair |
| Salford win | 19% | 24% | 5.05 | value: +22% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salford −1 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Mansfield −1 | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 68% | 1.58 | value: +7% |
| Under | 39% | 32% | 2.47 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Baily Cargill · Mansfield |
| 18' | ⚽ | Will Swan · Mansfield |
| 42' | ⚽ | Junior Luamba · Salford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ryan Watson · Salford |
| 45' | ⚽ | Baily Cargill · Mansfield |
| 57' | ⚽ | Davis Keillor-Dunn · Mansfield |
| 73' | 🟥 | Theo Vassell · Salford |
| 74' | 🟨 | Matthew Lund · Salford |
| 81' | ⚽ | Lucas Akins · Mansfield |
| 87' | 🟨 | Luke Garbutt · Salford |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 29 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mansfield | Salford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | One Call Stadium |
| Louis Reed · Mansfield |
| 90' | ⚽ | Hiram Boateng · Mansfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1210.00 | 54.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1633.53 | 1485.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.61 | 41.03 |
| eye test v1 | 1.10 | 0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.75 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.00 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.55 |
| league points | 60.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 57.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | -1.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 6.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.40 |
| state index | 0.50 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | -1.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |