← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Gill
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salford win | 40% | 39% | 2.44 | fair |
| Barrow win | 33% | 34% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barrow −0.25 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Salford −0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 45% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 55% | 1.94 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Callum Hendry · Salford |
| 40' | 🟨 | Junior Luamba · Salford |
| 42' | ⚽ | Cole Stockton · Barrow |
| 47' | ⚽ | Tyrell Warren · Barrow |
| 54' | 🟨 | Elliot Watt · Salford |
| 57' | ⚽ | Conor McAleny · Salford |
| 62' | 🟨 | Declan John · Salford |
| 67' | ⚽ | Callum Hendry · Salford |
| 77' | ⚽ | Matt Smith · Salford |
| 86' | ⚽ | Matt Smith · Salford |
| 87' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 29 | Shots | 14 |
| 12 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salford | Barrow |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | The Peninsula Stadium |
| David Worrall · Barrow |
| 90' | ⚽ | Cole Stockton · Barrow |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 47.00 | 596.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1471.63 | 1512.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.32 | -39.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.62 |
| league points | 36.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.66 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.18 | -0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.39 | -1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |