← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Tue, Feb 13, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Oldham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 63% | 67% | 1.54 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.50 | fair |
| Harrogate win | 16% | 11% | 6.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Mansfield −1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Harrogate −1 | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 52% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 48% | 2.15 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas Akins · Mansfield |
| 14' | 🟨 | Hiram Boateng · Mansfield |
| 20' | ⚽ | Hiram Boateng · Mansfield |
| 30' | ⚽ | Hiram Boateng · Mansfield |
| 34' | ⚽ | Tom Nichols · Mansfield |
| 39' | ⚽ | Davis Keillor-Dunn · Mansfield |
| 50' | ⚽ | Hiram Boateng · Mansfield |
| 54' | ⚽ | George Thomson · Harrogate |
| 55' | ⚽ | Abraham Odoh · Harrogate |
| 61' | ⚽ | Lucas Akins · Mansfield |
| 75' |
| 5 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 7 |
| 13 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mansfield | Harrogate |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | One Call Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Will Swan · Mansfield |
| 77' | ⚽ | Will Swan · Mansfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1199.00 | 5401.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.38 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1635.63 | 1508.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.32 | 44.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 66.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| league points | 57.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.90 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.29 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |