← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salford win | 37% | 37% | 2.60 | fair |
| Forest Green win | 36% | 38% | 2.68 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.64 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salford +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Forest Green +0 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 52% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 48% | 2.17 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Matt Smith · Salford |
| 21' | 🟨 | Elliot Watt · Salford |
| 23' | 🟨 | Harvey Bunker · Forest Green |
| 39' | ⚽ | Charlie McCann · Forest Green |
| 41' | 🟨 | Luke Garbutt · Salford |
| 59' | 🟨 | Ryan Inniss · Forest Green |
| 70' | ⚽ | Mathew Stevens · Forest Green |
| 72' | 🟨 | Adrian Mariappa · Salford |
| 88' | 🟨 | Fankaty Dabo · Forest Green |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adrian Mariappa · Salford |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salford | Forest Green |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | The Peninsula Stadium |
| 🟥 |
| Adrian Mariappa · Salford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Inniss · Forest Green |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ryan Inniss · Forest Green |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Ryan Watson · Salford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1431.14 | 1394.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -69.79 | -24.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.61 |
| league points | 23.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 61.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.48 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | -2.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -1.79 | -1.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | -1.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |