← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Tue, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salford win | 40% | 44% | 2.46 | value: +7% |
| Tranmere win | 33% | 32% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.58 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tranmere −0.25 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Salford −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 55% | 1.76 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 45% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Harvey Saunders · Tranmere |
| 35' | ⚽ | Kieron Morris · Tranmere |
| 45' | 🟨 | Conor McAleny · Salford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Elliot Watt · Salford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jordan Turnbull · Tranmere |
| 50' | ⚽ | Connor Jennings · Tranmere |
| 55' | ⚽ | Matthew Lund · Salford |
| 64' | ⚽ | Regan Hendry · Tranmere |
| 72' | 🟨 | Conor McAleny · Salford |
| 72' | 🟥 | Conor McAleny · Salford |
| 87' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salford | Tranmere |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | The Peninsula Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Matt Smith · Salford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luke Garbutt · Salford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Josh Hawkes · Tranmere |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1030.00 | 116.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 3.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1487.68 | 1445.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.89 | 31.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.76 |
| league points | 23.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | -1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.89 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -1.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |