← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham win | 62% | 53% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.56 | fair |
| Salford win | 17% | 25% | 5.75 | value: +45% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham −1 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Salford −1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 63% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 37% | 2.65 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Matt Smith · Salford |
| 36' | ⚽ | Matt Smith · Salford |
| 39' | ⚽ | Elliot Lee · Wrexham |
| 45' | 🟨 | James Jones · Wrexham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Curtis Tilt · Salford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ethan Ingram · Salford |
| 60' | 🟨 | Liam Shephard · Salford |
| 75' | 🟨 | Eoghan O'Connell · Wrexham |
| 80' | 🟨 | Paul Mullin · Wrexham |
| 81' | 🟨 | Luke Bolton · Salford |
| 88' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wrexham | Salford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | STōK Cae Ras |
| Steven Fletcher · Wrexham |
| 89' | ⚽ | Jordan Davies · Wrexham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 835.00 | 957.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.83 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1330.30 | 1365.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.42 | 1.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.94 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.60 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.60 |
| league points | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.74 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.98 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |