← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Fri, Sep 15, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County win | 43% | 36% | 2.22 | fair |
| Salford win | 31% | 36% | 3.15 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.80 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Notts County +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Salford +0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 57% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 43% | 2.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | David McGoldrick · Notts County |
| 63' | ⚽ | Daniel Crowley · Notts County |
| 68' | 🟨 | Daniel Crowley · Notts County |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ethan Ingram · Salford |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jim O'Brien · Notts County |
| 84' | 🟨 | Conor McAleny · Salford |
| 86' | 🟨 | Elliot Watt · Salford |
| 87' | 🟨 | Kevin Berkoe · Salford |
| 88' | 🟨 | Aaron Nemane · Notts County |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin Berkoe · Salford |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salford | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | The Peninsula Stadium |
| 🟥 |
| Kevin Berkoe · Salford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aaron Nemane · Notts County |
| 90' | 🟥 | Aaron Nemane · Notts County |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 928.00 | 471.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1531.94 | 1446.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.81 | 57.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.30 | 57.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| league points | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 65.60 |
| rest days | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | 2.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.43 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.62 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.87 | 1.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |