← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Parsons
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green win | 43% | 45% | 2.29 | value: +3% |
| Crewe win | 29% | 28% | 3.24 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.47 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crewe −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Forest Green −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 52% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 48% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Joel Tabiner · Crewe |
| 18' | 🟨 | Luke Offord · Crewe |
| 35' | ⚽ | Reece Brown · Forest Green |
| 46' | 🟨 | Troy Deeney · Forest Green |
| 49' | ⚽ | Christopher Long · Crewe |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jamie Robson · Forest Green |
| 60' | ⚽ | Courtney Baker-Richardson · Crewe |
| 64' | 🟨 | Connor O'Riordan · Crewe |
| 68' | 🟨 | Harvey Bunker · Forest Green |
| 69' | ⚽ | Courtney Baker-Richardson · Crewe |
| 74' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Forest Green | Crewe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | The Bolt New Lawn |
| 🟨 |
| Darnell Johnson · Forest Green |
| 82' | ⚽ | Elliott Nevitt · Crewe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 435.00 | 312.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 4.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1517.32 | 1505.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.52 | 20.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| league points | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |