← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Joyce
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrogate win | 40% | 42% | 2.45 | value: +4% |
| Morecambe win | 32% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.44 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Morecambe −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Harrogate −0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 48% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Jacob Bedeau · Morecambe |
| 20' | 🟨 | Farrend Rawson · Morecambe |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Luke Armstrong · Harrogate |
| 45' | 🟨 | Adam Mayor · Morecambe |
| 47' | 🟨 | Levi Sutton · Harrogate |
| 64' | 🟨 | Farrend Rawson · Morecambe |
| 64' | 🟥 | Farrend Rawson · Morecambe |
| 66' | ⚽ | George Thomson · Harrogate |
| 82' | 🟨 | Josh Falkingham · Harrogate |
| 83' | 🟨 | Mark Oxley · Harrogate |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Harrogate | Morecambe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.12 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | EnviroVent Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Donald Love · Morecambe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 5230.00 | 571.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.30 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1437.62 | 1540.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.33 | 13.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -1.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | -0.73 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.72 |
| league points | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 55.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 34.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | -3.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.70 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -2.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |