← EFL League Two 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington win | 45% | 37% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
| Harrogate win | 27% | 34% | 3.54 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Accrington −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Harrogate −0.25 | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 49% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 51% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Jay Rich-Baghuelou · Accrington |
| 27' | 🟨 | Sam Folarin · Harrogate |
| 28' | ⚽ | Sean McConville · Accrington |
| 34' | 🟨 | Matty Daly · Harrogate |
| 45' | 🟨 | Joe Mattock · Harrogate |
| 46' | 🟨 | Sean McConville · Accrington |
| 71' | 🟨 | Seb Quirk · Accrington |
| 82' | 🟨 | Seb Quirk · Accrington |
| 82' | 🟥 | Seb Quirk · Accrington |
| 83' | ⚽ | Warren Burrell · Harrogate |
| 87' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Accrington | Harrogate |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Wham Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Liam Coyle · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟨 | Seamus Conneely · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Falkingham · Harrogate |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jack Nolan · Accrington |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 3974.00 | 5223.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.59 | 3.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1612.85 | 1441.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.22 | -3.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | — | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.67 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.58 |
| league points | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.67 | 68.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.19 | -1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.33 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.67 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |