← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle win | 38% | 41% | 2.55 | value: +4% |
| Salford win | 33% | 33% | 2.98 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salford −0.25 | 55% | 1.76 |
| Carlisle −0.25 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 51% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 49% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Callum Anthony Guy · Carlisle |
| 23' | ⚽ | Callum Hendry · Salford |
| 28' | ⚽ | Luke Bolton · Salford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ryan Edmondson · Carlisle |
| 52' | 🟨 | Ibou Touray · Salford |
| 77' | ⚽ | Joe Garner · Carlisle |
| 78' | 🟨 | Joe Garner · Carlisle |
| 83' | 🟥 | Jon Mellish · Carlisle |
| 83' | 🟨 | Elliot Watt · Salford |
| 84' | 🟨 | Conor McAleny · Salford |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Kristian Dennis · |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Carlisle | Salford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Brunton Park |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kristian Dennis · Carlisle |
| 88' | ⚽ | Luke Bolton · Salford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 452.00 |
| 789.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.82 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1559.11 | 1566.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.54 | -8.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.54 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | — |
| league points | 75.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.70 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.88 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.42 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.21 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |