← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Mon, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salford win | 42% | 38% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.37 | value: +6% |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 29% | 30% | 3.35 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Salford +0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 59% | 1.75 | value: +3% |
| Over | 45% | 41% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Kasey McAteer · AFC Wimbledon |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sam Pearson · AFC Wimbledon |
| 45' | 🟨 | Armani Little · AFC Wimbledon |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ethan Galbraith · Salford |
| 55' | ⚽ | Conor McAleny · Salford |
| 58' | ⚽ | Ali Al-Hamadi · AFC Wimbledon |
| 79' | 🟨 | Elliot Watt · Salford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kasey McAteer · AFC Wimbledon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Callum Hendry · Salford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Callum Hendry · Salford |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Salford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Callum Hendry · Salford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 344.00 | 770.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1279.97 | 1398.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.31 | -2.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 47.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.69 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.26 | 26.70 |
| state index | -0.93 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |