← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town win | 35% | 43% | 2.73 | value: +16% |
| Harrogate win | 35% | 29% | 2.74 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.31 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Harrogate +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Crawley Town +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 56% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 44% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Aramide Oteh · Crawley Town |
| 25' | 🟨 | Ashley Nadesan · Crawley Town |
| 32' | 🟨 | James Tilley · Crawley Town |
| 37' | 🟨 | Jack Powell · Crawley Town |
| 44' | ⚽ | Aramide Oteh · Crawley Town |
| 67' | ⚽ | Jordon Mutch · Crawley Town |
| 83' | 🟨 | Kellan Gordon · Crawley Town |
| 88' | 🟨 | Alexander Pattison · Harrogate |
| 88' | 🟨 | Sam Folarin · Harrogate |
| 90' | 🟥 | Toby Sims · Harrogate |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crawley Town | Harrogate |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Broadfield Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Anthony O'Connor · Harrogate |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 69.00 | 5062.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1370.07 | 1419.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.72 | 18.56 |
| eye test v1 | -1.32 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.78 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.76 |
| league points | 26.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 63.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.41 | -1.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | -1.46 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |