← EFL League Two 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Edwards
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 47% | 46% | 2.13 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Salford win | 26% | 28% | 3.75 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salford −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Mansfield −0.5 | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 49% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 51% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | James Perch · Mansfield |
| 18' | ⚽ | Matthew Lund · Salford |
| 21' | ⚽ | Callum Hendry · Salford |
| 28' | 🟨 | Jason Lowe · Salford |
| 36' | ⚽ | Davis Keillor-Dunn · Mansfield |
| 50' | ⚽ | Luke Bolton · Salford |
| 52' | 🟨 | Ollie Clarke · Mansfield |
| 56' | ⚽ | Matthew Lund · Salford |
| 78' | 🟨 | Jordan Bowery · Mansfield |
| 81' | ⚽ | Theo Vassell · Salford |
| 83' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 4 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mansfield | Salford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | One Call Stadium |
| Danny Johnson · Mansfield |
| 88' | ⚽ | Jordan Bowery · Mansfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 846.00 | 726.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1582.62 | 1527.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 60.82 | -16.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.40 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.80 |
| league points | 52.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.67 | -0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | 1.01 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.34 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |