← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Sat, Oct 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrogate win | 61% | 60% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
| Scunthorpe win | 14% | 17% | 7.00 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Scunthorpe −1 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Harrogate −1 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 50% | 1.82 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 50% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Jack Muldoon · Harrogate |
| 14' | ⚽ | Alexander Pattison · Harrogate |
| 16' | ⚽ | Jack Diamond · Harrogate |
| 19' | 🟨 | Alfie Beestin · Scunthorpe |
| 30' | ⚽ | Alexander Pattison · Harrogate |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jack Muldoon · Harrogate |
| 69' | 🟨 | Lewis Thompson · Scunthorpe |
| 79' | ⚽ | Harry Davis · Scunthorpe |
| 81' | 🟨 | Lewis Thompson · Scunthorpe |
| 81' | 🟥 | Lewis Thompson · Scunthorpe |
| 83' |
| 5 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Harrogate | Scunthorpe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | EnviroVent Stadium |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Danilo Orsi-Dadomo · Harrogate |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 4544.00 | 434.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1489.40 | 1358.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.57 | -32.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 19.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.60 | 63.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | — |
| season ppg | 1.90 | 0.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | -1.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| state index | -0.14 | -1.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |