← EFL League Two 2021-22 · Sat, Sep 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Howard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield win | 47% | 56% | 2.05 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.51 | fair |
| Harrogate win | 25% | 20% | 3.93 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Harrogate −0.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Mansfield −0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 46% | 1.89 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 54% | 1.98 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Rhys Oates · Mansfield |
| 5' | ⚽ | Luke Armstrong · Harrogate |
| 9' | 🟨 | Richard Nartey · Mansfield |
| 36' | 🟨 | Kellan Gordon · Mansfield |
| 38' | 🟨 | George Lapslie · Mansfield |
| 41' | 🟨 | Lewis Page · Harrogate |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jack Muldoon · Harrogate |
| 66' | 🟨 | Warren Burrell · Harrogate |
| 70' | 🟨 | Josh Falkingham · Harrogate |
| 73' | 🟥 | Ollie Clarke · Mansfield |
| 74' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Mansfield | Harrogate |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | One Call Stadium |
| 🟥 |
| Stephen Quinn · Mansfield |
| 81' | ⚽ | George Thomson · Harrogate |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jack Diamond · Harrogate |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Maris · Mansfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 307.00 | 4509.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1497.23 | 1476.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.65 | 28.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.70 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |