← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Tue, Jan 26, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Haines
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere win | 40% | 42% | 2.41 | fair |
| Harrogate win | 31% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.45 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Harrogate −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Tranmere −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 60% | 1.89 | value: +14% |
| Over | 48% | 40% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Josh McPake · Harrogate |
| 35' | 🟨 | Connor Hall · Harrogate |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | James Vaughan · Tranmere |
| 51' | ⚽ | Kaiyne Woolery · Tranmere |
| 53' | ⚽ | James Vaughan · Tranmere |
| 57' | 🟨 | Calum MacDonald · Tranmere |
| 69' | 🟨 | Connor Hall · Harrogate |
| 69' | 🟥 | Connor Hall · Harrogate |
| 72' | ⚽ | Josh March · Harrogate |
| 86' | 🟨 | Paul Lewis · Tranmere |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tranmere | Harrogate |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Prenton Park |
| 🟨 |
| James Vaughan · Tranmere |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 86.00 | 4288.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1509.73 | 1465.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.46 | -0.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 69.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| league points | 35.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.20 | 61.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 3.17 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -2.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | -1.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |