← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Sat, Jan 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Brook
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge win | 42% | 40% | 2.29 | fair |
| Harrogate win | 30% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.54 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Harrogate −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Cambridge −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 54% | 1.83 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 46% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Jack Muldoon · Harrogate |
| 34' | 🟨 | Josh March · Harrogate |
| 47' | 🟨 | Mitchell Roberts · Harrogate |
| 64' | 🟨 | Harry Darling · Cambridge |
| 67' | 🟨 | Lloyd Kerry · Harrogate |
| 71' | ⚽ | Joe Ironside · Cambridge |
| 73' | 🟨 | Josh Falkingham · Harrogate |
| 78' | 🟥 | Lloyd Kerry · Harrogate |
| 79' | 🟨 | Warren Burrell · Harrogate |
| 81' | ⚽ | Wesley Hoolahan · Cambridge |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cambridge | Harrogate |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Abbey Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Harrison Dunk · Cambridge |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Ironside · Cambridge |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 374.00 | 4271.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1481.40 | 1468.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.71 | -2.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.50 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| league points | 34.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.54 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.03 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |