← EFL League Two 2020-21 · Tue, Nov 24, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Hair
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salford win | 53% | 57% | 1.83 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.77 | fair |
| Morecambe win | 21% | 19% | 4.61 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salford −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Morecambe −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 46% | 1.86 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 54% | 2.03 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Alexander Denny · Salford |
| 10' | 🟨 | Martin Smith · Salford |
| 28' | 🟨 | Ian Henderson · Salford |
| 36' | 🟨 | Bruno Andrade · Salford |
| 40' | 🟨 | Samuel Lavelle · Morecambe |
| 41' | ⚽ | Ashley Hunter · Salford |
| 44' | ⚽ | Ashley Hunter · Salford |
| 54' | ⚽ | Cole Stockton · Morecambe |
| 60' | 🟨 | Yann Songo'o · Morecambe |
| 86' | 🟨 | Tom Elliott · Salford |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salford | Morecambe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | The Peninsula Stadium |
| Ryan Cooney · Morecambe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 23.00 | 389.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1529.79 | 1410.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.98 | 5.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.80 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.56 |
| league points | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 61.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 3.17 | 3.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | -1.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.22 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |