← EFL League Two 2019-20 · Sat, Jan 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: N. Kinseley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green win | 46% | 52% | 2.11 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
| Salford win | 26% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Forest Green −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Salford −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 42% | 1.81 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 58% | 2.08 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Ibou Touray · Salford |
| 11' | ⚽ | Josh March · Forest Green |
| 14' | 🟨 | Ashley Hunter · Salford |
| 38' | 🟨 | Michael O'Connor · Salford |
| 55' | ⚽ | Michael O'Connor · Salford |
| 63' | 🟨 | Richie Towell · Salford |
| 75' | 🟨 | Richie Towell · Salford |
| 75' | 🟥 | Richie Towell · Salford |
| 80' | 🟨 | Nathan Pond · Salford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Farrend Rawson · Forest Green |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 30 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Forest Green | Salford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | The New Lawn |
| 🟨 |
| Ashley Hunter · Salford |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ashley Hunter · Salford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | — | 627.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1541.70 | 1472.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.35 | 2.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| league points | 44.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 65.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | -1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | -0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |